Divided by Education: Republicans vs. Democrats
The political landscape of the United States has always been a complex tapestry woven from different threads—race, gender, status, and, increasingly, education. As we stand on the brink of another election cycle, the latest data from the AP Votecast survey reveals a pretty clear trend: Americans are more divided by educational attainment than ever before. This is an important topic because it reflects not just the appearance of new dynamics in voter preference but also the potential for future political realignments. Understanding this divide is crucial for making sense of the recent past and our immediate future.
This article will argue that the widening educational gulf in American politics is remaking party loyalties and electoral results, exposing us to an even more divided society that may well reshape the political landscape for years to come. The votes may be closer in the future, but many of these “swing” counties—from suburban to rural America—appear to be drifting toward the Republicans, as do some once-safe educated enclaves. This trend raises fundamental questions about the future of both bipartisanship and the populism that arose in 2016. Are America and its democratic institutions coming apart? If so, what role is increasingly unequal access to a quality education playing in this disintegration? And what should we ascribe to the redistributive effects of college education?
Shifts in Racial Voting Patterns
This polarization risks driving us toward a fragmented society. Sociologist and author of “Bowling Alone,” Robert Putnam, warns that the social isolation engendered by our educational divides is really a lack of understanding and empathy across different strata of American society. He argues that it’s causing the poor, the not-so-financially-well-off, and the part of “Middle America” that’s just getting by to become not just less understood but also less resolvable in reason and less reachable in dialogue by the “professional,” educational, and political class. Meanwhile, we remain at risk of drifting farther apart in our political affiliations.
On the other hand, people with college degrees have become more and more liberal and tend to support the same kinds of values that progressives do, which puts us in a situation where we are a lot more in favor of social justice, climate change, and forms of healthcare reform. And if we’re talking about the politics of the right, we’ve got voting dynamics that have, in an alarming fashion, begun to evolve. While the Democrats have held a strong majority among Black and Latino voters, we’re seeing some troubling trends now that suggest an increasing number of people of color are shifting toward the Republican Party.
The Persistent Gender Gap in Politics
Education has become a key identifier in American political life today. For the past few decades, the Republican Party has seen more and more support from white voters without college degrees. Two things account for this growing class divide in party affiliation. First, the nature of the educational divide is changing. The less one has been educated, the more one is likely to support the Republican Party, as the political scientist Thomas Edsall has shown. Second, the incentives for avoiding the Republican Party have grown. The less-well-educated class of whites that supports the Republicans has been a shrinking class, along with the appearance of the Republican Party as a vehicle for protecting “traditional values.”
The enduring gender gap in voting appears to be as solid as ever. Women seem to be on a permanent Democratic detour, while men seem to be swerving toward the GOP. But if you look at the recent trends, both seem to be moving toward the Republicans. And what’s moving them seems to be something different from the economy or President Biden’s job performance. It looks as if something is shifting, maybe even breaking, in the wall we’ve always had between the Democrats and the Republicans, and that wall is now a gender wall.
State-by-State Dynamics of Voter Preferences
Social media has played a critical role in shaping the political opinions of young voters. Misinformation and echo chambers have appeared to make up for our inability to live together in political peace. But lying to each other and feigning partiality to the liars is taking up too much of our time and is making us too angry. Voters now find it really impossible to disagree in a way that preserves some façade of civility.
Some might contend that the educational divide is exaggerated, with other factors like race and geography playing a larger role in shaping political loyalty. But the data are becoming unambiguous. Education is increasingly the prism through which Americans view, and vote on, political issues. The political agenda is becoming less tethered to some basic, undergirding principles—conserve, liberate, or whatever one’s baseline ideology may be—and more responsive to the appearances and performances of candidates. Meanwhile, the pull toward empathizing with one’s own side has probably never been stronger; it’s fueled less these days by the gusto of political rallies than by the indignation of Twitter and Facebook posts.
Moreover, as the electorate becomes ever more divided, the effects on forthcoming elections are nothing if not significant. Candidates might increasingly court their bases and, consequently, might forcefully and uncompromisingly jam the nation’s political machinery. The educational divide is not an error. It is a condition—a serious and deepening condition—that divides the social classes and poisons their political conversation. And it is a condition that promises to be with us for the foreseeable future, reshaping the nation’s political landscape not merely for the next election but for many elections to come.
It is vitally important to comprehend the origins of this divide if we are to promote dialogue and achieve something that seems increasingly elusive these days—unity. At a moment when the country is navigating a complex and contentious divide, the time is right to ask: Can we bridge the educational divide, or will we remain forever polarized by the very institutions that are supposed to unite us? The answer we come to may well determine the future of American democracy.