Shifting Latino Political Allegiances
The Latino electorate is now a strong factor in American politics, able to tip elections in critical states. The Democrats have long been the party of choice for Latino voters, but some recent polls have shown a significant uptick in support for the Republicans among this group. Overall, the Latino population is growing by leaps and bounds. They are now the largest ethnic minority group in the U.S. But within this community, political affiliations are a bit of a Rorschach test. This piece aims to shed some light on who Latino voters are, the dynamics of their support, and why both parties need to be paying better attention to this demographic.
Impact of Economic Concerns on Latino Voters
This article contends that the changing political loyalties of Latino voters—now more likely to identify as independents and increasingly economically dissatisfied—represent both a hurdle and a chance for Democrats and Republicans. These potential changes in the electoral behavior of the Latino community might have the profound effects that many scholars have anticipated.
We cannot overstate the importance of Latino voters. By 2023, they are on track to become the second-largest racial or ethnic group in the electorate, after white voters. In the 2020 election, more than 13% of eligible Latino voters cast a ballot, and that number is expected to grow in the future. Yet, historically, the turnout of Latino voters has not come close to matching their growing numbers or potential political power. However, engagement with the Latino community is something both political parties take seriously.
Changing Perspectives on Immigration
From almost every conceivable angle, 2020 was a banner year for external Democratic organizations attempting to engage Latino voters. Not only did these groups amass and spend unprecedented amounts of money, but they also deployed tactics—from door-to-door canvassing to the saturation of Spanish-language media—in an effort to reach and persuade this fast-growing, yet stubbornly underinformed, segment of the electorate. Yet the ultimate goal—to help deliver the promise of a Democratic presidency—fell short, as did many of the Democratic organizations on the electoral scoreboard.
The Latino electorate is not a single entity. It comprises a rich variety of backgrounds, national origins, and experiences. Each group within the larger Latino community has unique traits, historical events, and figures that have shaped its experiences in this country. The Latino identity itself is made up of considerable diversity. Though they have a shared history of immigration to this country, individuals from different countries of origin and even different regions within the same country can have very different experiences.
Millennial and Gen Z Latino voters are systematically more likely to identify as independents rather than align with the two major political parties. They are much more open to either party attempting to reach out to them. Historically and traditionally, the Democratic Party has been able to count on Latino voters, especially within the millennial and Gen Z generation, as a key part of its voting coalition. But in recent years, there seems to be a deterioration in that baseline support, and we’re seeing much more skepticism toward both parties.
The Growing Importance of Latino Voter Turnout
Latino voters place great importance on economic matters, especially those related to the working class. Job instability and stagnant wages continue to unfavorably affect our communities. Both parties understand this and are attempting to connect with Latino voters by addressing our economic concerns. For the Democrats, Vice President Harris has been the lead the way in focusing on affordable housing and job availability. On the other hand, Former President Trump has focused mostly on the economic record he ran on in 2016 and the kinds of jobs his administration was able to create.
The Latino electorate holds immigration as an important issue, but it is not simple in the way that it was a decade ago. Now, there is not just a pro-immigration stance, but, in shorthand, pro-immigration with a focus on border security. This is a view that both Democratic and Republican Latino voters seem to hold. So why is the Republican Party using immigration as a way to push Latino voters away?
Although the Latino population is growing, the number of Latinos who vote is low. Many people who could vote do not; in fact, a large number of them are not even registered to vote. Some efforts to reach out to this next wave of voters who could just as easily not have a say in the election have worked better than others. But the turnout challenge is an opportunity for both parties to stake a claim to this pool of voters who seem not quite ready to be claimed by either side.
The fall in fidelity to the Democratic Party among Latino voters could herald something more significant—a political realignment. Since most young Latinos are not strictly raised in either the derecha or izquierda camp, a future without political partition could be possible. And with most presidential election outcomes decided by only a handful of states, the independence of young Latinos makes them a potential tipping factor across a number of swing states.
Some may contend that the Democratic Party’s usual position on matters such as immigration and healthcare will maintain Latino voters’ loyalty. But the figures tell a different story. An ever-growing number of independents indicates a rising discontent with both parties. And this is especially true among young voters. They tend to feel that neither party adequately represents them.
In addition, the Latino community—some parts of which feel economically buffeted—has begun to respond to Republican outreach efforts. Asylum-seeking families, for example, have made our immigration policies a top-of-mind issue in the Latino community. And because many Latinos are economically insecure, why shouldn’t they be focused on jobs? Bidenomics is not on our side.
It is vitally important for the average reader to grasp the changing dynamics of the Latino vote, especially with another contentious election cycle approaching. The understanding extends well beyond party politics; it speaks to the very essence of whom and what our society chooses to represent. The representation of that society is certainly a matter of social justice and, as we in the U.S. know, often justice shared is a matter of economic equity.
The Latino electorate is in the midst of a seismic shift, moving away from the two-party system toward a more independent, third-party, or no-party preference. At the same time, it is becoming a much more economically distressed and disaffected labor force, one that is experiencing an unprecedented unemployment rate and falling incomes. These shifts are putting the Latino vote in play as a swing-state electorate. Economically, at least, these communities are not “voting against their interests.”
The 2024 election is around the corner, and Latino votes are undecided. Our concerns aren’t partisan, but we want to know why we should support you over your opponents. “You” refers to candidates running for office at any level nationwide. Got any plans to work with us on pressing issues such as youth mental health, unacceptably low rates of Latino college completion, and 24/7 access to affordable, high-quality health care? Or for that matter, on any issues that might resonate with us and tilt the election in your favor? Cohesion within the Latino community is essential to overcome the serious problems we face.