Harris Takes Narrow Lead in Poll
The United States is on the verge of a new election cycle, and a recent Wall Street Journal poll has offered an unexpected result: Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in a notional match-up for 2024, taking 48% to Trump’s 47%. The poll was taken right after the Democratic National Convention, where Harris aimed to give her public profile a boost and, in her words, redefine herself. While this leads us to speculate about what it might mean for the nation if Harris were to defeat Trump in a Presidential election, it also serves as a moment to take note of just how unpopular Trump continues to be.
This piece will examine the meaning of Harris’s uptick in the polls, where she stands on some key issues (like abortion, for example, where her opponent—former President Donald Trump—has also been challenged), and what it all could mean for both candidates when the highly polarized electorate casts its votes in just over a year. It comes down to this: Harris is performing better with voters than she did for much of 2020; however, her opponent has a pretty solid lead in the key issue areas of the economy and immigration. What’s more, I’m not sure what this means for American democracy.
Voter Awareness and Perception of Harris
The next election could have huge consequences. When voters were asked about their knowledge of the leading candidates on the poll, more than 80% said they were familiar with Harris. That will be scrutinized fairly closely. She talks a good game (and it’s not insincere; she seems to actually believe this stuff) about middle-class concerns, like the insane price of housing. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has no shortage of opportunities to remind everyone of how good things were when he was President—border security, energy independence, the low price of everything, the vibrant stock market, etc., etc.—and a lot of voters take him up on it because he really does have a good time going down memory lane on that one.
Harris’s edge in managing abortion rights may be essential. The surge in reproductive rights voter engagement since Roe has allowed erstwhile battlegrounds like Wisconsin to rotate back to the Democrats. Political analyst Jennifer Duffy writes, “Abortion is not just a policy issue; it’s a mobilizing force that can drive turnout in critical swing states.”
Kamala Harris’s journey to the Vice Presidency has had both ups and downs. After a historic career as a prosecutor and California Attorney General, she was chosen as Joe Biden’s running mate in 2020. Harris became the first woman of South Asian and African American descent to hold the office. Yet her tenure has been beset by criticisms regarding her handling of immigration issues and the economy, and Trump remains a formidable opponent despite losing to Joe Biden. A big part of why Trump’s presidency resonates with so many people is that he took a dig-in-your-heels, unapologetic approach to governing. Whether people love him or hate him, they talk about him—with a fervor that few politicians can muster.
Trump’s Strengths on Key Issues
According to the poll results, Harris has built an image as a relatable person, due to her focus on the kinds of things ‘normal’ Americans experience. These include a middle-class upbringing, living in a family with a long history in the public sector, and, especially, her tireless campaigning on behalf of true blue economic issues. Harris’s narrative is both compelling and uncomplicated, designed to counter the not-uncommon perception that she is a little too much ‘politician’ and not quite enough ‘normal Californian.’ Yet Clinton’s well-spun tale of relatable ‘normalcy’ could only take her so far—and reinvention isn’t Harris’s only problem.
Trump’s advisers closely monitor public perception and are always redirecting him toward the “thumbs up” policies that serve him best. For example, he continues to be effective at framing immigration in a way that convinces some people it is really a national security issue. His terms remain loaded and, in our different respects, powerful. Harris seems to offer a counterpoint to this by leading with compassion, which of course is a powerful frame, but it is also one that we can see easily deflecting back to her in a way that might seem to endow her with some substantial fresh ammo.
That’s something she has to work with more. Another thing she has to work with is the perception of Trump’s Project 2025 as a harmful agenda, which is surely a place where her handlers earn their keep.
Upcoming Debate as a Key Opportunity
Some may contend that Harris’s lead is slim and that Trump has a strong shot to overcome her in the general election. After all, Trump has a base of support that is almost fanatical in its devotion to him. While they may tout the possibility of an economic upturn as favorable for Trump’s candidacy, they neglect to account for the shifting priorities of voters, especially in the light of recent polling that favors Harris when social issues are in play. Moreover, they also don’t seem to take into account the dissatisfaction of a large segment of voters with Trump’s and the Republicans’ political agenda and policies, which Harris taps into very effectively with her own message.
This election cycle offers the average voter something more than just a selection between two candidates. It allows them to weigh in on what kind of society America will be. When divisive issues like abortion, economic equity, and immigration take the spotlight, it forces voters to consider what they really value and how that aligns with their vision for society. The decision made at the ballot box will instantly affect policies but also will have a lasting impact on the very fabric of society.
To sum up, the latest Wall Street Journal survey reveals a very pivotal moment in U.S. politics, with Vice President Kamala Harris making significant gains against former President Donald Trump. Not only has she closed the gap in the electoral college, but she also appears to be connecting with voters on some key issues, including abortion rights. Where she still struggles is with male voters, who, even in a polarized environment, still seem to prefer the alternative to Harris—Donald Trump.
As the country faces a pivotal moment that could shape its future, one pressing question lingers: will the electorate in 2024 prefer to choose a pathway of transformative progressive change or return to the old familiar rhetoric of yesteryear? The answer will not only decide the next president but will also impact in a big way how the identity of the nation in the 21st century unfolds.