Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah Confirmed Dead
The death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, recently confirmed after a round of Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, seems unlikely to shake Hezbollah’s ability to project power in the region—at least not in the short term. It could, however, stir the pot in Lebanon and lead to changes in the regional balance of power, if not in the immediate future, then perhaps later down the road.
Leadership Void and Instability in Hezbollah
Since its founding in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has been a major player in Lebanon and in the culture and politics of the broader region. For better or worse—mostly for worse, according to many—its influence has only grown. Nasrallah, a pro-Hitler figure who has declared the practice of Sunni Islam to be the work of the “antichrist,” has led the group for more than 25 years and taken it to heights few would have imagined.
This article will contend that Hassan Nasrallah’s death creates a dangerous power vacuum within Hezbollah that could destabilize Lebanon and even the broader region. Various groups inside and outside of Hezbollah would then have an interest in using the moment to assert themselves and push their own agendas, with the added benefit to them—if you’re in the business of making instability fevers—that it could make some parts of Lebanon a no-go area for the Lebanese Army.
What would happen if Nasrallah died? The outcomes could be catastrophic—not just for Hezbollah, but for the whole nation of Lebanon. Even now, without a serious internal conflict, the Lebanese state is “fragile” to an extent that is “fundamentally dangerous,” according to a report by the Middle East Institute. Lebanon is facing one of the worst economic crises in history, as stated by the United Nations. The Lebanese population has plunged to an unprecedented level of poverty. If an internal conflict explodes, it is hard to imagine Lebanon containing it or avoiding sectarian outcomes, given the state’s weakened structure and layers of ungovernability.
Potential Regional Escalation and Iran’s Role
The geopolitical fallout could be sharp and immediate. Iran, Hezbollah’s main patron and regional partner, could respond to Nasrallah’s death by sending in reinforcements—both bearers of bad news and bad news bears—to Hezbollah’s mountainous strongholds, which overlook the Galilee region in northern Israel. As noted expert on the Middle East Dr. Rami Khouri has warned, “The death of a leader can create a power vacuum that is often filled by violence and chaos, especially in a region as volatile as the Middle East.”
Born out of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah has morphed into a potent political and military force. Hezbollah’s social services are innumerable and unmatched, and they dominate the lives of southern Lebanese Shia. In the recent past, the Israeli military and its other enemies have tried to cut down Hezbollah’s repute and capabilities by going after those social services and—most critically—the human resources that make them possible.
Hezbollah’s operational capacity and leadership structure were the main targets of Israeli airstrikes carried out in recent days. These strikes, which occurred in the “Ain al-Saa” region in southern Lebanon near the common border with Israel, killed at least 34 militants. One of the strikes was said to have killed a key figure in Hezbollah’s military wing and another significant figure in the Shiite organization’s leadership. Following the strikes, Hezbollah vowed to retaliate against Israeli targets in northern Israel. The group has been described as a “state within a state,” and with considerable autonomy inside a politically divided Lebanon, Hezbollah has maintained a degree of stability.
Lebanon’s Deepening Crisis Amidst Conflict
Nasrallah’s death has left Hezbollah in a precarious situation. The organization is set up for succession, but many of the potential leaders do not have the kind of battlefield experience and political savvy that Nasrallah had. Infighting could happen; this group is so tightly wound together for so many reasons that it could easily unravel if sufficient leadership wiggle room is present.
Hezbollah’s political opponents, particularly rival factions and sectarian groups, could try to take advantage of a Hezbollah without Nasrallah. Lebanon’s political scene is already rife with tension. It has an “absence of a strong leader” that creates a power vacuum filled precariously with potential violence and contested authority. “In a country where political power is often contested through violence,” observes political analyst Dr. Ziad Majed, “the absence of a strong leader can create a dangerous vacuum.”
We mustn’t overlook the possibility of Iranian intervention if Nasrallah is killed. Iran has a strong interest in Lebanon and in its proxy, Hezbollah. It could use its other proxies in Syria and Yemen to hit Israel. If that happened, it could bring in other regional players, like Saudi Arabia, and sharpen an already dangerous situation.
The U.S. is keeping a close eye on what is happening and is apprehensive about the situation possibly leading to a larger regional conflict. When it comes to managing its ties with Israel and Iran, the death of Nasrallah is at once a challenge and an opportunity for the U.S. If the Americans put their weight behind this, there might be a next good opportunity to try to push the parties toward making a new cease-fire happen.
Hezbollah’s deaths and history of resilience might suggest that the group could stand strong in a post-Nasrallah scenario. But the context in which such a leadership transition might occur makes it a potentially high-reward, low-risk opportunity for Iran and its proxies, to Hezbollah’s detriment to the extent that it is able to respond to the threats posed against it—by the state of Israel in particular. Hezbollah’s potential for effective internal functioning and for external domestic pressure-military problem-solving seems much diminished.
For the average reader, Nasrallah’s death isn’t just about international politics. It poses very real threats to civilians living in Lebanon, already beset with economic woes. If violence spikes in the wake of Nasrallah’s death, Lebanon’s social fabric is under threat. The country is right on Israel’s northern border, and a direct threat to civilian lives in Lebanon poses very real risks to the average Israeli citizen, not to mention the potential for a humanitarian crisis in the Hezbollah-dominated country to grow and affect spillover into the Sunshine State.
Hezbollah and the Middle East face a landmark moment with the death of Hassan Nasrallah. The militant group is now left with an uncertain succession plan, and the Lebanese state is as fragile as ever. Hezbollah’s leadership problem has big implications for Lebanon and for the region. And then there is the fight in Syria. Hezbollah’s forces have become integral in helping the Assad regime turn the tide of battle — with important repercussions for security across the Middle East. What comes next for Hezbollah, Lebanon, and the fragile security climate of the region?
In a part of the world where vacuums of power so often mean anarchy, the passing of a paramount leader can spell both chance and risk. The aftermath of Hassan Nasrallah’s exit demands the serious consideration of a number of Lebanese and international actors—first and foremost, of course, the Lebanese themselves—because Lebanon, and not those who envy or loathe it, is the sole locus of the authority that chance and risk in this case will affect most directly.