Trump’s Strong Start in Rural Areas
With the approaching 2024 presidential election, the American political scene appears tense and unpredictable. New reports from pivotal states like North Carolina and Georgia underscore a notable comeback from ex-President Trump, who is somehow managing to pull in even more support than before, especially in the country’s rural areas. But Trump’s apparent revitalization isn’t just about him being Trump’s biggest fan. It’s also about profound societal shifts and a somewhat terrifying look into the future of American democracy, with potentially seismic effects on the country’s political landscape.
This article contends that the rural areas where Trump is strong, together with the uncertainty that still surrounds the counts of the crucial votes in certain states, places American politics at a critical turning point. It tries to get at the implications of this for both Republicans and Democrats, as well as the look of a half-divided, half-united society that the electoral map foregrounds.
Early Election Update: Counting Votes
The 2024 election is immensely significant. Gallup’s latest polling shows that nearly 70% of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Discontent with the Biden administration is not limited to Trump’s base or even primarily to Republicans. Three-quarters of the voters who say they are dissatisfied with the federal government could be picked up off any rural street. Pew Research has found that our discontent is not only widespread but also trending rural. Rural America’s grievances are increasingly articulated by Trump, who, in turn, is apparently finding an undercurrent of enthusiasm in the wide-open spaces between our towns and economically distressed counties.
In addition, we can’t overstate the significance of Georgia and North Carolina. These states, once regarded as toss-ups, have become essential to the playcalling of both parties in presidential elections. If Trump’s team can flip Georgia and North Carolina, it could profoundly reshape the electoral map and make it much tougher for the Democratic team to claim victory in 2024. That outcome would obviously have long-term implications for a lot of folks; the Democratic Party’s young, racially diverse, and politically engaged base.
Both Georgia and North Carolina were vital battleground states in the 2020 presidential election. While Joe Biden managed to receive the narrowest of margins in winning Georgia, a state that had not gone for a Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992, Trump easily carried North Carolina. Yet the outcome in either state is not a foregone conclusion for either party anymore; flipping either Georgia or North Carolina gives a presidential candidate serious electoral college cred.
The latest news from the electoral front shows that, despite doing well in rural America, Trump hasn’t yet put this election in the bag. There remain substantial swaths of blue votes that are either still to come or still in dispute—urban centers being, of course, the big blue places where one would expect a lot of blue votes that, for now, appear to be just hanging out. These blues might not make it past the next several weeks without a fair amount of editorializing on both sides concerning what’s supposed to be a pretty straightforward congressional oversight hearing on election integrity.
Key States: North Carolina and Georgia
The turnout that Trump can generate in rural America underscores a really important divide in American society. As our urban centers continue to grow and to become ever more diverse, rural voters sometimes feel like they are left out, like they are not really part of this political process. And this sense of being “other” can push some of these small-town communities out to the edges of our ever-expanding political map and rally them around political figures that promise to stand up for rural interests.
According to Vice President Harris, the pathway to win the electoral college starts with reclaiming the three “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These states, which have not only leaned but also historically given a Democratic Party ticket, might actually not vote for the Democratic candidate in 2024 if the working-class male voters, who are crucial to the Democratic coalition, decide to stay home. Issues of economy, jobs, and health care, which historically have motivated these voters to flip into the Democratic column, need to be addressed again, with new strategies, by the Democratic Party.
Counting the votes adds a layer of complexity to the election story. It brings us to the edge of our collective seats. And it sometimes causes us to hold our breaths. We now have a good sense of which way many of the elections have gone. But there are still some key races—and key questions—that remain unresolved.
Vice President Harris’s Path to Victory
Trump’s renewed popularity might affect something other than the election itself; it could impact the very stability of American society. A society divided into mutually hostile camps can hardly help but see some of its members resort to violence. And what could more futilely incite a camp’s loyalty to its leaders than the prospect of not just a reelection but also a restoration of presidential power to a figure whom half the country, at least, considers an authoritarian threat?
Some analysts believe that Trump’s support in rural America is exaggerated and that it is demographic trends, not political ones, that favor the Republicans. Yet, recent election results tell a different story. They consistently show that rural America is not only Republican but also a reliable base from which the GOP can count on coming back in every election. And while some think that the Electoral College favors the Republicans, it is also true that rural America is a series of counted political structures that can provide a lot of energy to any party that plants its flag there.
For the median reader, the electoral dynamic’s consequences are deep. Voter behavior’s surrealism makes “sense” in only a couple of unfathomable ways, and if you’re on the losing side of either pathway, you’re likely to find the results unfathomable (and deserving of any number of the pathological labels we’ve seen from both sides in today’s political discourse). The average reader needs to see themselves in the unfathomable pathways of any number of voter decisions.
The societal effect of an electorate split down the middle is hard to ignore. It’s like a supercharge for social unrest. The average citizen must understand the increasing importance of civic engagement, the reasons for it, and how anyone can step up (or tune in) as civically engaged citizens to help sustain a more inclusive American political discourse in these polarized times.
To sum up, Trump’s robust beginning in the 2024 election—especially in rural America—shows how the political landscape is changing. The unfolding drama about who won and who lost the important toss-up states, particularly Georgia and North Carolina, adds intrigue. These two states, with their mix of urban and rural populations, seem to be emblematic of larger national trends. As we approach our next big electoral test, understanding what all of this means, for good or ill, is essential.
Another election cycle is looming, and the issue at stake is whether America can heal its rifts and move toward a future resembling anything one might call “unified.” The answer, I suspect, will lie not just in how many people vote or in whom they vote but in how engaged they are with one another and how much they work at being democratic with one another—at listening to one another, for instance, in a way that in some places at some times seems nearly impossible.