Current State of the War in Ukraine
The now two-and-a-half-year-long Ukrainian conflict represents a watershed moment, not just for Ukraine but for international politics. With Russia holding some 18% of Ukrainian territory, the war’s stakes reach well beyond the immediate danger to lives and property. In Russia’s wayward leadership, the West sees a challenge to international order. Could Russia succeed in subjugating Ukraine? If so, then next, who could be in line—Poland, the Baltic states, anywhere else in the West’s line of sight? And if this looked like a potential victory for the bad guys, what kind of encouragement might it win for them in other parts of the world?
While the body of this article will address the impressive nature of Ukraine’s resilience, the ongoing stalemate raises some serious questions. When you consider the combination of the stalemate, resources that seem to be dwindling, a political landscape that is shifting (most notably in the United States), and the imminent threat of the American political class cutting off support under a new administration, you get a situation that calls for some serious strategizing and objective recalibration.
Challenges Facing Ukrainian Forces
The war in Ukraine isn’t just a fight that concerns only the countries directly involved; it is a conflict that resonates far beyond Eastern Europe because it pits democracy and the rule of law against authoritarianism. It has incredible human costs—that is evident. Indeed, estimates of the dead and wounded in Ukraine and Russia alone are difficult to fathom. But what is almost impossible to grasp is how the war in Ukraine affects (and is being affected by) the muddled international order in which we all find ourselves.
Retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmit put it most succinctly: “Neither side is winning, nor is either side losing.” But this situation also raises important questions about Ukrainian “sustainability.” After all, the country is fighting for democracy, and it is we who live under democratically elected governments who apportion the money and the weapons that make its military efforts possible.
Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression started in 2014 when Crimea was annexed. The situation escalated when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. This has become a conflict of wills, in which both sides seem locked into a slow-motion fight for territory and national pride. Our support for Ukraine, and that of our NATO allies, has been impressive. But as this war grinds on, the question of how sustainable all these aid packages are does come to mind. Right now, the battlefield looks like a stalemate, for the most part, with all the effort seemingly directed at trying to seize key road junctions and other strategic installations. The winter, meanwhile, offers additional challenges, as it always does. And if we needed another reminder of how serious this situation is, well, North Korea has started sending troops to help the Russians.
International Support and Strategic Concerns
Ukraine’s military might is under immense strain from the war with Russia, and it is their Western allies that are largely propping up its military capabilities—given that the Russian military is much larger and can withstand more attrition. But even here, the supply of fresh means of military delivery to the Ukrainian armed forces cannot be taken for granted. This is obviously true in advancing the kinds of military supplies that President Biden faithfully sends to the Capitol. But the European nations don’t really talk about this very much, either. And Trump could very well change all of this by putting the brakes on the military aid that this allied community of states has been providing to Ukraine.
The war has made the demographic crisis in Ukraine much worse. It threatens the country’s future in ways that are hard to assess but easy to foresee. Young people are the key ingredient in any country’s postwar recovery. Yet Ukraine’s younger population—those essential for Reconstruction after the war—is in real danger of deserting or emigrating. Desperate to keep its younger population from leaving, the Ukrainian government has taken the very difficult step of conscripting older men into the army while offering a reprieve to younger men for just a little while longer. Meanwhile, as the war enters a new phase, it is high time for Ukraine to reassess its military objectives.
Future Outlook for Ukraine’s Military Efforts
Others might say that Ukraine’s successes of late—such as the drone strikes it has carried out deep into Russian territory—indicate a possible “turning point” in the ongoing conflict. What happened, however, is hardly a turning of the tide for Ukraine. The drone strikes, for instance, were strikes of opportunity, utilizing the few tactical advantages that Ukraine currently has to carry out audacious, if not foolhardy, direct hits against targets deep within Russian territory. To put it plainly, Ukraine’s successful attempts to strike at the very heart of Russia don’t add up to the kind of win that makes one think Ukraine is reclaiming lost ground.
The war in Ukraine has many ramifications for the average person. The conflict demonstrably affects large swaths of people who live on the front lines of democracy—human beings in all their numbers and diversity. It pushes to the forefront stark reminders of the death toll and the human suffering inflicted by war. And all of that somehow returns and reverberates in our own lives because of the way that the war in Ukraine and its either-delayed or-too-early resolution is sure to affect our lives directly in any number of as-yet-unforeseen ways.
Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invaders has reached a crisis point. The battlefield has stalemated, and both sides are feeling the pinch of dwindling resources. Changes in the domestic and foreign political landscapes could shift events in either one side’s favor or the other’s, but neither is clearly in a position to secure a decisive edge right now. And unless a miracle occurs, neither side is going to secure a clear victory anytime soon.
The narrative of Ukraine offers both warnings and inspiration in our world of conflict and division. Why? Because the striving of the Ukrainian people for a free, democratic society exposes the fault lines of our increasingly authoritarian world. As we look ahead, let us remember that peace is much more than not having wars. It is the presence of a stable, good-order society whose members have a shared commitment to a better future.