Reclaiming Tinian’s Abandoned Runways
The Pacific Ocean is home to the small island of Tinian, which was a vital military base during World War II. Nicknamed “the End of the Line” by the Japanese for its isolation, Tinian served as a springboard for American bombers that executed crucial missions during the war. The airfields on the island, however, have long since become overgrown if not completely abandoned. They are an emblem of sorts of a military strategy that has fallen out of favor. And yet, as tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan have ratcheted up in recent years, the old airfields and the installations that accompany them have taken on renewed significance. In fact, a military that is focused on the prospect of fighting in a future war with China is using the narrative of Tinian—an old story, really—to inform a new way of thinking and planning.
This article argues that restoring Tinian’s airfields is part of a larger counter-China military strategy in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. military is using this project as an emblem of sorts for a still-hazy combat employment doctrine, signaling to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) the importance of these strategic assets.
Military Adaptations in Response to Rising Threats
Tinian’s revival means much more than mere economic recovery for the island’s residents. It is a strategic countering of a potential military threat to the United States. The threat comes from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which now sees itself as the regional superpower and has undertaken an extensive military modernization program to that end. Among other things, the modernization has produced a far more capable missile force that directly threatens U.S. interests throughout the Indo-Pacific region. In the face of this potentially very serious military threat, the U.S. is working to create a far more militarily resilient posture. The revival of Tinian as an Air Force forward operating location and a civil-military venture means something very important and something that needs to happen.
According to experts, including retired General David Goldfein, who served as the Chief of Staff of the Air Force, strength and raw numbers are no longer sufficient for the U.S. military to win future conflicts. Adapting military strategies and operations to meet evolving, contemporary threats has become paramount. “The future of warfare,” Goldfein said, “will be defined by agility and speed.”
Agile Combat Employment: A New Strategy
Tinian’s airstrips, once some of the most heavily trafficked in the world, played an essential part in the delivery of atomic bombs to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, a moment in history that no one can deny was pivotal. After World War II ended, the U.S. shifted its focus away from Tinian and the other islands of what was then called the Marianas, gradually abandoning what had once been a powerful set of strategic assets. Yet the Pacific now occupies center stage anew, as the rise of China as a rival military power has prompted a serious reassessment of U.S. military bases in a part of the world where they can still make a critical and dramatic difference.
The present strategy, entitled “Agile Combat Employment” (ACE), requires the dispersal of U.S. forces across an intricate web of smaller, austere locations. These are not just “remote” bases; most of the time, you’d have to conscript locals to pretend they’re part of the U.S. military to give the bases any pretense of being operational. The critical World War II operations that launched from Tinian Island gave the airstrips there a symbolic military importance that they still hold. Re-establishing those airstrips and re-investing Tinian with military importance would send a dual message: it would honor the legacy of WWII and extend that legacy into the present day.
Reviving Historic Airfields for Future Conflicts
The swift transformation of the Chinese military, specifically its missile capabilities, poses an urgent threat to U.S. interests in the Asia Pacific. The DF-26 and hypersonic missiles have dramatically changed the strategic landscape, compelling the U.S. military to adopt an even more agile and responsive posture. Reclaiming the airfields on Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands is part of a larger effort to ensure the next-generation U.S. military can project power and operate across the contested waters and skies of the South China Sea.
Operational flexibility is at the heart of the ACE concept. This may be a mostly theoretical framework for now, but its principles—most notably using smaller bases—are very much in practice as the U.S. military looks to the southwest Pacific for a way to deter China. The ACE is a way for the Air Force to assure its presence in a region that is very far from the continental United States, while also appearing to be able to deliver significant firepower if required.
Reinstating Tinian’s airstrips is part of the broader U.S. goal in the Pacific to strengthen alliances and partnerships in the region. Indeed, the U.S. presence is so necessary and is so much taken for granted that maintaining it does not have to be justified in any serious way. The airstrips at Tinian and the old wartime support base on Saipan are set to revive as part of a modern-day U.S. military commitment to that part of the Pacific.
Those who criticize the revival of Tinian’s airfields claim that it’s a throwback to an old way of dealing with modern war’s messy, often nonlinear, dynamics. An escalation of the current situation with China, they warn, could lead to disaster with Tinian and its airfield becoming ground zero in that disaster. Yet for the air force advocates for Tinian, having a win at all costs on the ground in that part of the world is the first step toward not having a real open-in-your-face war with China.
The average reader might view the resurrection of Tinian’s airfields as a long-lost military operation, but what happened there and why is it important for everyone to know about? It has to do with what we are paying attention to in the Indo-Pacific, where conflict could break out over numerous issues that Geopolitical Futures has been reporting on for several years.
The reclaiming of Tinian’s airstrips is not only a nod to nostalgia; it is a necessary strategic move in the face of upsurging tensions with China that revolve around the United States and its allies. Tinian’s airstrips allow the use of an Agile Combat Employment approach—a rather revolutionary strategy in which small groups of U.S. personnel will be able to seize key airbases across the Indo-Pacific. This works because the airstrips conquered in World War II have a key advantage: they can project air power across the region and do so in a relatively safe manner.
Once more, the jungle yields to the tarmac, and Tinian readies itself to be a linchpin in the strategy of the U.S. to safeguard its interests in the vast Indo-Pacific region. The present world gives the impression that conflict could happen any time, and the revival of this obscure airfield serves as an important preparation for future hostilities. The stakes aren’t just high; they are the highest of the high, and history tells us that being ready is the highest form of peace.